Sanibel in the crosshairs

One of the joys of living in Florida is logging on, daily, to the National Hurricane Center’s website during summer and early fall. It comes as second nature. We follow tropical weather like others listen to traffic reports. Most of the tropical storms and hurricanes meander around the Atlantic or the Caribbean. When landfall is predicted it is usually in some remote area of Mexico. But not this one.

Last Friday a disturbance that had formed in the mid-Atlantic was declared a tropical storm, named Fay. At that point the NHC publishes a predicted path. And I was in the crosshairs. Not to worry, the track always changes. Well it hasn’t. Over three days the track has moved westward about 20 miles, but now it’s back. Even the different computer models are in close agreement. Seven of the 15 model tracks, including the NHC’s, go right over my house. Land fall is predicted on Sanibel around 9am Tuesday.

The track is almost a duplicate of Charley (2004), a Cat. 4 monster. This one is predicted to be a weak 1. We’ve already pulled in the outdoor furniture and locked all the windows. We have hurricane glass so storm shutters aren’t needed. The sweaty and time consuming job (20 minutes) is installing the reinforcing bars on the garage door (rated for 135 mph) which we’ll do late tonight. Then we’ll decide whether to evacuate or not. We have accommodations available just off the island if we need it.

Strobe Talbott, now a voice of reason

Strobe Talbott, was a correspondent for Time Magazine during the 1980’s. He was an apologist for the Soviet regime and is considered by some to have been a willing dupe of Soviet intelligence, or even worse. In the May 21, 1984 issue of Time he wrote this:

“The Reagan Administration has made a bad situation worse in two ways: first, by convincing the Soviet leaders that the U.S. no longer accepts military parity as the basis for relations with Moscow; second, by challenging the legitimacy of the Soviet regime, calling the U.S.S.R. an ‘evil empire’ doomed to fail.”

He missed the mark about the “evil empire” as subsequent events would prove. It failed when Boris Yeltsin, standing atop a tank in front of the Russian White House (Parliament building) put down a military coup intended to perpetuate the old order. Now in a stunning reversal, Strobe Talbott thoroughly dissects Russia’s reasoning for invading Georgia in today’s Washington Post. The Russians are trying to equate it to NATO’s intervention in Serbia and the establishment of a separate state of Kosovo.

“Russia has been justifying its rampage through Georgia as a ‘peacekeeping’ operation to end the Tbilisi government's "genocide" and "ethnic cleansing" of South Ossetia. That terminology deliberately echoes U.S. and NATO language during their 1999 bombing campaign against Serbia, which resulted in the independence of Kosovo.”

He goes on. “

This analogy turns reality, and history, upside down. Only after exhausting every attempt at diplomacy did NATO go to war over Kosovo. It did so because the formerly "autonomous" province of Serbia was under the heel of Belgrade and the Milosevic regime was running amok there, killing ethnic Albanians and throwing them out of their homes. By contrast, South Ossetia -- even though it is on Georgian territory -- has long been a Russian protectorate, beyond the reach of Saakashvili's government.”

And finally.

“Yet it now appears that beyond the undisguised animosity that Putin bears toward Saakashvili, he and his government regard Georgia's pro-Western bent and its aspiration to join two Western institutions, NATO and the European Union, as, literally, a casus belli. If that is the case, the next U.S. administration -- the fourth to deal with post-Soviet Russia -- will have to reexamine the underlying basis for the whole idea of partnership with that country and its continuing integration into a rule-based international community.”

Read it all.

More Polish courage

Yesterday Poland spat in Putin’s face.

They announced the acceptance of an American missile defense system on their soil at a time of Russian aggression in Georgia. They totally turned the tables on him. Putin expected a harsh reaction from the US, but he didn’t expect it from the Poles. Once again the gutsy Poles stood their ground against the bear. This missile system is designed to intercept ballistic missiles from a rogue power (currently Iran and N. Korea) aimed at our European allies. The system has no offensive capabilities at all and is not a threat to Russia. The missile’s warhead is a non-explosive kinetic kill vehicle. It destroys an incoming missile with small tungsten cubes on an umbrella shaped net that’s deployed in flight.

When these cubes, on the 3-4,000 mph interceptor, collide with a 5,000+ mph incoming missile they penetrate the warhead and prevent a successful nuclear detonation. The limited number (10) of interceptor missiles can be “war gamed” to death by the Russians if they want. If they launch 11 missiles against the 10, the eleventh and any others that follow will get through. Russia has plenty of missiles to play this game, the rogue states do not. Russia’s greatest fear is they and their rogue friends will lose the ability to intimidate Europe with nuclear blackmail. Likewise the radar system presents no threat to the Russians.

The FBX-T system is “soft,” meaning it cannot survive a nuclear near miss or even a well directed conventional one. But it is mobile which makes targeting it very difficult for a nation without real time intelligence capabilities, meaning the rogue states. Only 4 of these radars are being built. The first is already deployed to Japan (to defend against N.Korea), one probably for Turkey, one for Israel and one for the Czech Republic.

The Poles were the first to successfully challenge the established communist order in Eastern Europe. Their resistance to Soviet Communism springs from the well of their Catholic faith and the courage of a few leaders, especially Pope John Paul II and Lech Walesa. Lech Walesa led the Solidarity movement in the early 1980’s. He carried out a strike at the Gdansk Shipyard and backed the communist authorities down. Strikes spread to the rest of the country and demonstrated the impotence of Russian rule and eventually emasculated it.

The Poles don’t play dead. God bless the Poles.

Russia's ultimate weapon

President Bush has castigated the Russians for their invasion of Georgia. It is now obvious that Russia, despite assurances to the West, wants total control over the entire country, not just the disputed territory of South Ossetia. This fits with predictions Putin would continue his efforts to rebuild the Russian empire to include the republics lost with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Already the southern tier, the “stans,” (Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have been brought into the fold through Russia’s gas pipeline monopoly and political intrigue.

The two remaining thorns in Putin’s side are the former Soviet republics Georgia and Ukraine. The Russians rigged elections in both countries but failed when popular uprisings invalidated them and resulted in pro-Western democracies. The Ukrainian election was particularly nasty with the unsuccessful poisoning of now President Viktor Yushchenko with dioxin. As we have seen, the current Russian regime will stop at nothing to eliminate its political enemies and critics.

Despite Bush’s protestations, there isn’t a lot we can do to change the outcome. Geographically Georgia is remote, on the eastern end of the Black Sea. Aircraft carriers are banned entry by the Montreaux Convention, not that we would want to conduct naval operations there. There just isn’t enough sea room. The only contiguous friendly country is Turkey and the distance from Istanbul to Tbilisi is over 800 miles.

But the most serious problem is our European allies. Never known for their backbone when it comes to facing down enemies, their overwhelming reliance on Russian natural gas has added to their timidity. Fifty years of American protection has allowed continental military forces to atrophy and grow soft. Even the British have lost their zeal for combat. In Iraq, they cut deals with al Sadr’s militias, abandoned their base in Basra and retreated to the exurban safety of the airport. The highly criticized Iraqi Army cleaned house in a few days, a job the Brits wouldn’t and couldn’t handle.

How bad is Europe’s reliance on Russian gas? Enough that people will freeze if they play tough. Here’s how dependant they are (2005 figures): Germany 30-39% France 20-25% Poland 62% Italy 25-28% Bulgaria 97% Czech Republic 79%

The thought of chilly winters no doubt colored Germany’s Angela Merkel’s decision last week to veto NATO membership for Georgia. And it sent a signal of weakness to the Russians. Unless Europe can diversify their gas suppliers, they will forever be beholden to the Russians. Who would ever have thought Russia’s economic might would be more potent then their 50,000 tanks during the cold war in their quest to subdue Europe?

Hillary resurrected?

There has been a spate of articles disparaging Barak Obama from unlikely sources. With the convention three weeks away and the general acceptance that Obama is the almost certain nominee, this goes against the grain.

The Washington Post, reliably in the Democratic camp, has carried two editorials here and here castigating his Iraq policy and a biting piece by Dana Milbank entitled “President Obama Continues Hectic Victory Tour.” Adam Nagourney, political correspondent of the New Your Times wrote a story that Obama had not succeeded in closing the racial divide, which earned him the emnity of Obama’s staff and got him kicked off the campaign plane. Two weeks later he followed that up with “Where’s the Bounce?” another less than positive story about declining poll numbers following Obama’s trip. The most damning portrayal was published on a pro-Hillary website, IOwnMyVote.com. It quotes a letter to the Treasurer of the DNC from a mega contributor and Hillary supporter who refuses to contribute to this year’s DNC fundraising campaign. He considers Obama a flawed candidate. Why all this negativity from a well disciplined party and supporters who normally close ranks behind the presumptive nominee?

Well, never count the Clintons out. Normally the party’s Presidential candidate becomes the party leader, yet neither Al Gore nor John Kerry ever earned that mantle. The Clinton’s still hold the reins. And they play politics for keeps. But if the Clintons are ever to live in the White House again, they have only two options. Get the nomination in 2008 or failing that, have Obama lose the election. Should Obama win, he will, no doubt, last two terms.

By 2016, no amount of Botox or plastic surgery could make Hillary look youthful. Would the Clintons welcome falling poll numbers for Obama? Would they be happy with the perception Obama can’t win? Would they use their press contacts to perpetuate that meme? You would think not. But then this comes along from ABC News yesterday (August 6):

Sen. Hillary Clinton told a gathering of supporters last week that she's looking for a "strategy" for her delegates to have their voices heard and "respected" at the Democratic National Convention -- and did not rule out the possibility of having her name placed into nomination at the convention alongside Sen. Barack Obama's.

Perhaps it’s for leverage to be keynote speaker, or perhaps even the Vice Presidential nod. Perhaps not. Relations between the two camps have become chilly. No, icy. Obama won’t help in paying off Clinton’s campaign debts, despite his pledge. If you are a political junkie, don’t turn your TV off after the Olympics. It could be the most exciting convention ever.

Strategic Reserve release, a vey bad idea

Barak Obama has proposed the release of 70 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to alleviate prices. This represents about 10% of the entire reserve and three years of accumulation. It is a very bad idea.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve was authorized after the Arab Oil Embargo of 1973-74, when Arab countries cut off oil to Western Europe, Japan and the United States for their support of the Israelis in the Yom Kippur war. The purpose of the reserve was and is to mitigate supply disruptions or shortages that would jeopardize our national security. We simply do not want to be blackmailed by our enemies. The conditions for the release of oil must come from “a severe energy supply disruption” and satisfy three conditions according to the 2006 CRS Report to Congress:

The Energy Policy and Conservation Act authorizes drawdown of the Reserve upon a finding by the President that there is a “severe energy supply interruption.” This is deemed by the statute to exist if three conditions are joined: If “(a) an emergency situation exists and there is a significant reduction in supply which is of significant scope and duration; (b) a severe increase in the price of petroleum products has resulted from such emergency situation; and (c) such price increase is likely to cause a major adverse impact on the national economy.”

 Additionally in 1990, allowance was made to release small amounts to make up for limited supply disruptions such as harbor entrance closures, ship groundings and the like. Two releases stand out as violating this principal, both under the Clinton administration, and both in election years. In 1996, 28 million barrels were sold to “balance the budget.” And in 2000, in the two months prior to the election, 30 million barrels were released to alleviate home heating oil shortages in the politically important New England states.

Outside of the legalities, the country and the world will be faced with real shortages if there is a conflict between Israel and Iran. The Straits of Hormuz will be mined and closed by Iran, cutting off a major portion of Persian Gulf oil. It is an easy, cheap and effective retaliatory strategy. If we diminish our supplies now, we will run out sooner. And be weaker.

Anrhrax killer a suicide?

The LA Times reports this shocker today:

“A top government scientist who helped the FBI analyze samples from the 2001 anthrax attacks has died in Maryland from an apparent suicide, just as the Justice Department was about to file criminal charges against him for the attacks, the Los Angeles Times has learned. Bruce E. Ivins, 62, who for the last 18 years worked at the government's elite biodefense research laboratories at Ft. Detrick, Md., had been informed of his impending prosecution, said people familiar with Ivins, his suspicious death and the FBI investigation.”

The entire anthrax case is a sordid example of shoddy journalism abetted by a malicious FBI and Justice Department that ruined the career of Dr. Steven Hatfill, a research scientist at Fort Detrick. At the settlement of Hatfill’s libel case against the government in late June, US District Judge Reggie Walton declared, "There is not a scintilla of evidence that would indicate that Dr. Hatfill had anything to do with this."

It appears the settlement gave Hatfill little more than his legal expenses and missed salary for the next 20 years. Even more outrageous is the government knew at the time they were close to solving the case; information Hatfill’s lawyers didn’t have at settlement. It put them at a severe disadvantage in negotiations.

The myopic investigation that focused on only a single suspect, Hatfill, is a repeat of the Atlanta Olympics bombing investigation twelve years ago. There the FBI fingered Richard Jewell, a security guard, naming him “a person of interest” when there was no evidence to support it. Eric Rudolf was eventually convicted and Jewell exonerated, but not after having been destroyed by the media.

Handling kidnappers in Colombia

Gateway Pundit has been posting some fantastic reports about the success of Colombia in curbing violence in their violence racked country. This is in great part due to President Alvaro Uribe’s superb handling of the FARC insurgency.

It’s hard to get a handle on the methods used. Most press accounts don’t report them (the Washington Post a notable exception) but a Colombian acquaintance gave me some insight on how Colombia is curbing kidnapping. Kidnapping is the financial lifeblood for terrorists. It is easy, rewarding and relatively risk free. Victims are generally from well off families who can afford ransom payments.

This Colombian had been kidnapped himself but escaped and is now living in southwest Florida. He told me he could never return to Colombia. “They would kill me” he said. To curb kidnapping the Uribe government immediately puts a hold on all financial accounts when a family member has been kidnapped. They are allowed to withdraw enough to meet normal expenses, but they can’t meet ransom demands. By taking the decision not to pay ransom from the family, terrorist lose their leverage. It must be heart rending, but it is working. Kidnapping is down 83% since Uribe took office.

If only the European countries in Iraq would learn this lesson, there would be far fewer civilian kidnappings and less money in the hands of the terrorists. The Italians are the worst. And they wonder why their citizens are kidnapped so often.

Storm clouds

Another shoe has fallen in what appears to be US preparations for the contingency of an Israeli preemptive attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. According to Reuters the administration is poised to approve delivery of a Raytheon FBX-T radar system to Israel within 6 months. This mobile land based missile defense radar has a 2500 nautical mile range. It can detect baseball size objects at this range and incorporates advanced target discrimination technology to sort warheads from dummies and debris. The system allows far earlier engagement times than Israel’s Green Pine radar. This is important because the time of flight of a missile launched from Iran at Israel is only 11 minutes. Its data can be integrated into Israel’s Arrow anti-missile system as well as nearby ship borne US Navy SM-3 missiles. The latter was used to down an errant American satellite this past February. Reuters reports the imminent decision to deploy comes at the urging of a bipartisan group of congressmen.

“Nearly 70 members of Congress, including the top Democrat and Republican on the House of Representatives Armed Services Committee, sent a letter to Bush this week urging him to offer a warning radar that is "fully integrated" with the emerging U.S. shield.”

An earlier sign of trouble brewing was the redeployment in early July of the Abraham Lincoln carrier task group outside of the Straits of Hormuz, instead of its normal stomping grounds in the Persian Gulf. This reduces its vulnerability of being trapped in the Gulf in the event of a conflict. It allows defensive sea room and the ability to maneuver.

Trilobites

This morning Julie and I stopped by a truly unique store on Sanibel Island, Neptune’s Treasures. It will be closed soon by its elderly owner who recently suffered a medical setback. It has been a labor of love, but 5 years ago he decided he wanted to sell the business or close it because of his age, but didn't. Now sadly, he has to.

His business is trilobites and other fossilized relics from 500 million years ago. He loves them and wants others to love them. Trilobites won’t pay the rent so he has stocked sea shells, a mainstay item for island visitors. His are a cut above other shell stores. They, along with other artifacts, have sustained his business for years. While the store is still doing business, it is being run by a local couple who are close personal friends of the owner.

Today I had to buy a trilobite. I had spurned one as a gift a while back, but I will never find another trilobite store again. I will treasure it.

Positive signs for Zimbabwe

There is positive news about Zimbabwe tonight. Through the intervention of Thabo Mbeki, president of South Africa, there will probably be discussions between the competing parties in the recent elections to help resolve the political and economic crisis. The following is from Reuters via the New York Times:

Zimbabwe’s main opposition party could sign an agreement as early as Monday to begin substantive talks with President Robert Mugabe’s party on ending an impasse that has worsened the country’s severe economic crisis, opposition officials said on Saturday. The apparent breakthrough occurred after South Africa’s president, Thabo Mbeki, proposed forming a team drawn from African regional bodies and the United Nations to help him mediate the crisis in Zimbabwe.

 It seemed incredible that Mbeki could sit aside and watch a neighboring nation starve. He is a close friend of President Mugabe and probably the only individual who can talk sense to him. Can he use a carrot and stick approach to alleviate the suffering in Zimbabwe? Hopefully yes. UN food aid stopped when they found Mugabe’s forces were reselling it to raise foreign exchange. When the UN insisted on controls, Mugabe threw them out. Mbeki’s team hopefully will be more persuasive. The next step will be to offer Mugabe a pleasant villa in Durban overlooking the Indian Ocean as his retirement home.

Whatever the outcome, I welcome Mbeki’s positive actions. Also, as I pointed out in my previous post on Zimbabwe, if you want to find out what is happening to the people there, read Cathy Buckle. Her normal Saturday letter hasn’t been posted yet and it's already Sunday. I pray she is OK. Update Cathy Buckle is up now. Here is some of her weeekly letter:

It's been a brutal four months that Zimbabwe will never forget. A time when the country's leaders have bombarded us with hate speech, threatened us with war and tried to make us believe that they are immortal and their rule eternal. For the last four months we have been a population in a state of mourning as a litany of horror has become our daily lives: murder, torture, abduction, rape and arson. And now, after all these weeks of abuse and before the soil has settled over fresh graves, gifts are being given by the same people who threatened war. I

t seems to be of no consequence that the constitutional deadline for the swearing in of MP's and Senators, the election of the Speaker of the House and Senate and the ceremonial opening of Parliament have all been missed. As I write this letter the leaves from the Msasa trees are falling thick and fast. They are early this year and the sound of them raining down on the roof gives notice of a new season about to start. The falling of the leaves, like the wishes of the people, cannot be stopped - no matter how many gifts are given.

Al Gore proposes...er blackouts

Al Gore today called for replacing all carbon based electric power generation with alternative forms, primarily wind, solar, and geothermal in the next ten years. From the Washington Post:

…That is why I'm proposing today a strategic initiative designed to free us from the crises that are holding us down and to regain control of our own destiny. It's not the only thing we need to do, but this strategic challenge is the lynchpin of a bold, new strategy needed to re-power America.

So today I challenge our nation to commit to producing 100 percent of our electricity from renewable energy and truly clean carbon-free sources within 10 years.

This goal -- this goal is achievable, affordable and transformative. It represents a challenge to all Americans in every walk of life, to our political leaders, entrepreneurs, innovators, engineers, and to every citizen.

A few short years ago, it would not have been possible to issue such a challenge. But here's what's changed: The sharp cost reductions now beginning to take place in solar, wind and geothermal power, coupled with the recent dramatic price increases for oil and coal, have radically changed the economics of energy….

I pulled up these Intellicast wind maps a few hours after he delivered his speech. They cover the entire eastern portion of the country at 10PM EDT. Seems to be a problem. It’s night (no solar) and there’s no wind. It happens!






















How do we deal with that, Al?

Waterboarding in San Francisco?

This morning’s SF Gate (SF Chronicle) carried this item.

A disgruntled city computer engineer has virtually commandeered San Francisco's new multimillion-dollar computer network, altering it to deny access to top administrators even as he sits in jail on $5 million bail, authorities said Monday… Childs created a password that granted him exclusive access to the system, authorities said. He initially gave pass codes to police, but they didn't work. When pressed, Childs refused to divulge the real code even when threatened with arrest, they said… Officials also said they feared that although Childs is in jail, he may have enabled a third party to access the system by telephone or other electronic device and order the destruction of hundreds of thousands of sensitive documents…

 This is a non-lethal version of the ticking time bomb conundrum. Couldn’t have happened in a better place, ultra liberal San Francisco. They are faced with some tough decisions, how can they make Mr. Childs cough up the right password?

We know how the Bush administration would handle it, waterboarding. Will touchy-feely San Francisco follow the same example? Nah, good old rubber hoses will probably do the job.

Mugabe retains power, the people don't rejoice

On Saturday an effort by the US and others on the UN Security Council to issue sanctions against Zimbabwe failed when it was vetoed by China and Russia.

The sanctions proposed were relatively mild: an arms embargo, an appointment of a UN mediator and financial and travel restrictions on President Robert Mugabe and 13 of his top generals. This was an effort to penalize Mugabe and his Zanu-PF Party for gross human rights violations against his political opposition during the recent elections. During the first election in March, the government claimed opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai did not gain a majority and a runoff was needed to determine the presidency. This was disputed by the opposition.

Leading up to the runoff, Mugabe’s party goons terrorized opposition party members and their families with rape, butchery and murder. Shortly before the runoff, Tsvangirai withdrew, fearing for his life and those of his supporters. He also knew the results were preordained. Zimbabwe (formerly Rhodesia) is in economic ruin because of Mugabe’s policies. There is hyperinflation of 26,000% per year as the government simply prints more money to pay their bills. Once the breadbasket of Africa, the country is now on the verge of massive starvation after the white farmers were forced off of their farms, their lands confiscated and given to Mugabe's pals. Even efforts by impoverished Zimbabweans to provide for themselves, by selling their wares in an open-market shanty town, was met with military force, leaving 700,000 homeless and out of work.

It is difficult to comprehend the misery Zimbabweans live under. Antiseptic articles in British and American papers simply can’t do justice. But there is a window you can peer through that gives a more realistic picture. It is Cathy Buckle’s Letters. She writes her weekly memoirs every Saturday. Please be warned! You must have a strong constitution to read them. They will tear you up. Cathy Buckle is white. She is the widow of a farmer who bought his farm in the early 1990s with government assurances it would be safe. They were subsequently forced off it. Cathy loves her country. Most of her reporting is about the black citizenry and the suffering they face. From this past week:

“In the main supermarket in my home town this weekend there were too many empty shelves to count. In the fortnight since Mr Mugabe was sworn in as President for his sixth term, everyday life has gone from struggle to complete crisis. No one is coping now and in the last two weeks virtually all foodstuffs, toiletries and household goods have completely disappeared from stores.

On what should have been a busy weekend morning in our once thriving town, the car park was virtually empty and the only things to buy in the cavernous supermarket were cabbages, butternut squash, lemons, fizzy drinks and a few packets of meat.‘Where are all your goods?’ I asked one shop attendant.‘There is nothing,’ he said, ‘the suppliers say they have nothing to deliver.’I stood while he weighed the butternut squash I had chosen and exclaimed in shock at the 30 billion dollar price sticker he fixed to the vegetable. ‘Can I show you something?’ the man said and before I could answer he took his most recent pay slip out of his pocket.

For an entire month the shop assistant had earned just 28 billion dollars - not even enough to buy one single butternut squash. Eight hours a day, five and half days a week and his entire salary was not enough to provide even one single meal. He told me he had a wife and a child to support and said with remorse and shame in his voice:‘I am failing them and if I do not jump the border to look for work this month then they are surely going to die.’ ”

You would think the neighboring South African government might help. They won’t. Nor will the members of the Organization of African Unity. Other than a tepid chastising by two members at their meeting two weeks ago, Mugabe was treated as an honorable head of state.

Thugs like thugs.

Risk taking bureaucrats…and Democrats

In the mid 1970s this oxymoron was brought home when my newspaper (the Washington Star) invited two top level oil executives to chat with our business executives and news/editorial staff. After luncheon pleasantries, the oil execs related a story about a lease they had explored in the Gulf of Mexico. Said they paid short of a billion dollars for the lease, and over a billion for survey and drilling costs. But they came up with nothing, “only dry holes,” one explained. They had to abandon the lease.

One of the reporters took the bait. She asked, “What happened to the person who made that decision? Was he fired?” The answer was no, and as a matter of fact he had subsequently received a promotion. The exec went on to explain that all the research data had pointed to oil formations, that they had once contained oil, but over the millennia the oil had escaped. It just wasn’t there when they looked for it.

Then he turned the tables. He asked what would have happened if the government had done the drilling? How many congressional hearings would there have been? Would the bureaucrat who had made that decision been raked over the coals for wasting billions of taxpayers’ money? Government wants only sure bets, but the oil companies are in the risk business. They have costly failures, but they also have successes. It takes risk takers to succeed in the oil business.

Today there are new, but very high financial risk and potentially very high reward technologies to tap our oil shale deposits. If they can be developed, they will dwarf all oil fields ever discovered in the US, and are estimated to contain 800 billion barrels of recoverable oil. A Shell Oil physicist with the unlikely name of Harold Vinegar, has been working for nearly 30 years to find a better way than conventional surface or in situ (underground) retorting. Retorting techniques were wasteful, yielded a liquid that needed further processing before refining and in the case of surface retorting, left the landscape badly scarred.

Vinegar and Shell think they have found a better way. Their method is to heat the shale with electric heating rods to nearly the full depth of the deposit, and when the shale oil begins to flow, pump it out using conventional oil drilling equipment. Initial results in 1981 from a small privately owned test field successfully yielded oil, but initially it was unacceptably “gunky.” By keeping the conversion temperatures low (650º F) and prolonging the heating period (three years) he was able to produce a clear pipeline grade oil. More information on this may be found in the November 1, 2007 issue of Fortune and the 2005 Rand Study: Oil Shale Development in the United States.

Now Shell would like to do this on a larger scale. But they are stymied. Why? Because the Senate Appropriations Committee on a straight party line vote in May, extended the moratorium on shale oil lease development, to let “risk taking” bureaucrats at the Dept. of Interior study it for another year. At some point Democrats must support the economic well being of this country. And it isn’t just a price issue. It is about the security of the US.

Already Hugo Chavez of Venezuela threatened to cut off his 1.2 million barrels per day (roughly 10% of US imports). The majority of Americans now support offshore drilling. Why is it better to outsource our drilling to the Saudis, Libyans or the Indonesians? What does it accomplish? Oil imports adversely affect our balance of payments by $700 billion per year. And much of that goes to less than friendly governments. It’s time to stop being ideologues, and look at the needs of the country.

Wake up Democrats!

Moving a carrier, what does it mean?

The Department of Defense announced on July 8, it is moving its only aircraft carrier in the region out of the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, to better conduct operations in Afghanistan. This fits with other information signaling a reduced emphasis on Iraq and the beginning of a drawdown troops added for the surge, scheduled to begin July 1. But there is potentially a more ominous side to it.

If hostilities against Iran were to begin, the last thing our Navy would want is to have a carrier trapped in the Gulf. The Straits of Hormuz can be easily mined preventing an exit, and floating mines (used effectively by Saddam in the first gulf war) would be an unacceptable hazard. “Sea room” is one of the best protective measures naval forces can use. It gives time to assess a threat and deal with it. Operating in the Gulf 60 to 80 miles from the Iranian coast just doesn't allow enough decision time against a high speed aircraft. This doesn’t mean anything is imminent, but it appears to be the Navy is exercising foresight.

A Beginning

This is the start of a new adventure.

Up to now I have been an inveterate reader of blogs (mainly conservative) and often a commenter. While I spent most of my working career in the newspaper business, almost all was outside of the editorial side. After retiring in 2001 and moving to Sanibel FL, I joined the local Power Squadron. Along with my wife Julie, we agreed to edit and publish the squadron’s magazine format newsletter, Soundings. We signed on for two years and finally after nearly five years, including a conversion to internet publishing, we are turning over our responsibilities to our successors.

This leaves me time to get into trouble. Hence Island Turtle. I am an admirer of Ann Althouse’s blog, so this will look somewhat similar. Before someone retorts, “You sir are no Ann Althouse,” I know that and my limitations. 

We chose Sanibel Island because it offered a unique combination of a nature friendly environment, nearby beaches and the advantages of resort community. And of course the wonderful weather. There are about 50 restaurants in this incorporated city of 6,100 residents. There are no stoplights or streetlights. Strict height limits keep all buildings under 42 feet. There are no high rises on this gulf front island. A third of the island is the Ding Darling National Wildlife Refuge, another third is owned by a conservation foundation or other entities which will hopefully keep them out of development, and the remaining third is nearly built out.

You feel you are in a time warp going back to the late 1960s when you first visit the island. We do have our problems. We are in the hurricane belt and the island took a direct hit from Charley in 2004. But now the island looks better than ever. I hope to bring you pictures of what makes living here a joy. I hope to conduct a political discourse on the issues of the day. 

Corky Boyd