Will the Great Lakes freeze over this year? How to keep track

Update: Information here is the latest published data as of January 23, 2011.

With the recent blasts of frigid air into the mid parts of the US, there is renewed interest in tracking ice conditions in the Great Lakes.

Here are some maps and links to make it easy to follow. Two years ago, three of the lakes froze over: Superior, Huron and Erie. Normally the maximum freeze extent comes at the end of February or the first week in March. The first two charts come from this website and are updated twice a week. The web address has changed from last year, as well as the method of accessing them. After opening the site, under Category click on Charts and then select East Composite or West Composite. In the right hand box, click on the bottom listing to get the most recent data.

Another chart can be found here. It covers all the lakes in a single view and contains temperature information of unfrozen areas.

Why folks question temperature data … Iced over sea areas running 6 to 7F degrees over freezing

Starting in early December the sea surface temperatures between Iceland and Greenland were reported significantly higher than normal. This pattern is a repetition of last year. Yet there is significant sea ice (95 to 100% coverage) where the sea surface temperatures are running 3.5 to 4C (6 to 7F) above normal, which means above freezing. And the sea ice extent is at or above norm for the area, implying colder than normal temperatures. Even my rum and Coke with just 50% ice cubes stays within a degree or two of freezing. Makes you scratch your head.

Department of useless information: Lake Lanier is at Full Pool … Global Change is over.

Symbolic of Global Change in the Southeastern US have been the record low levels of Georgia’s Lake Lanier near Atlanta. They were caused by drought conditions that affected northern Georgia and the western Carolinas for the past several years. Lake Lanier is now at “full pool,” a level not seen since September 2005. It dropped to a record low of over 20 feet down in December 2007. And it took two Global Change events to reach Global Normal. They were downpours that caused major flooding in the area three weeks ago and heavy rains over the past three days.

Arctic sea ice not disappearing … Global Warming or Global Cooling?

Arctic ice coverage, far from disappearing, is currently (04/26/2009) at the highest level for this date since 2002. It is nearly at the 1979-2000 average. Global sea ice (Arctic and Antarctic combined) is nearly a million square kilometers over the 1979-2000 average. Question. Is this caused by Global Warming or Global Cooling?

Red River floods, global warming or cooling? The Word according to Obama

President Obama declared the Red River floods in North Dakota and Minnesota a wake up call to take global warming seriously. As with most global warming alarmists, he opened his mouth before checking the facts. In reality North Dakota and Minnesota, the sources of the Red River, had a much colder than normal winter (Dec-Feb). For North Dakota it was the 18th coldest and for Minnesota the 19th coldest in the past 114 years. From the Minneapolis StarTribune: President Obama used the flooding in the Red River Valley to insist that society needs to take global warming seriously. In a White House interview with a handful of reporters, including Janell Cole of the Forum of Fargo, the president said the current flooding cannot necessarily be blamed on global warming, but he said it should be a signal to act. But here are the facts (First map is temp anomalies, despite the incorrect title, and the second is state rankings): In reality the flooding comes from a heavy snow pack and a spring thaw, compounded by the northward flow into a still frozen river downstream. I wish the alarmists would tell us in advance whether global warming causes droughts or floods, whether it will cause Great Lakes levels to go up or down. Every trend away from the norm seems to be caused by global warming. Ask them what global cooling would do and you get a very blank look.

Three Great Lakes freeze over

Update: To follow these charts at their new location go to a more recent Island Turtle post here. Coinciding with the effort of the new administration’s efforts to fight global warming, we find three of the five Great Lakes are almost totally frozen over. Lake Erie is totally frozen, Superior about 98% and Huron about 85%. This is an extreme rarity. Perhaps the NY Times and Time Magazine were right in 1974. Perhaps we are entering the new Ice Age.