I am not optimistic the Georgia situation will be resolved successfully. Here's why. Already successive deadlines have passed for Russia to remove their troops, as agreed. They haven’t budged. It appears to be the big stall. And they aren’t stalling because they’re waiting to top off their tanks to return to the motherland. Already there are reports of surface to surface missile installations in South Ossetia capable of hitting Georgia’s capital Tbilisi. Their troops are digging in within artillery range of Tbilisi and they still hold Gori. Fox News reports troops near Gori are demanding western media show Russian press credentials, meaning the Russians are now free from prying eyes. But it’s more than just that.
It’s just not in Putin’s nature to give in. Putin sees himself as the person who will lead his country superpower status again, following in Stalin’s footsteps. He has resumed provocative Tu-95 Bear overflights of NATO exercises, a relic of the cold war. He wants the sovereign republics that were part of the Soviet Union back in the fold by any means. He rigged elections in Ukraine and Georgia only to see them undone in popular uprisings and legitimate elections. In Ukraine’s follow-up election, Russian agents poisoned the popular candidate Victor Yuschenko with a massive dose of dioxin, but failed to eliminate him. He won convincingly in a major defeat of Putin’s agenda.
Putin has eliminated political and media opposition. Too many writers critical of Putin have been murdered for it to be accidental, the best known, Anna Politovskaya. She had written a series of highly critical articles on Russia’s brutality in Chechnya. All TV networks are now in government hands. Newspapers have been shut down for hostile reporting and state advertising withheld. A new extremism law is being used to curb criticism of public officials.
Anyone who models himself after Stalin won’t exhibit weakness. Truces are for rearming. Most likely we will see a massive swift assault on Tbilisi to remove the vestiges of Saakashvili’s government. Count on it.
Showing posts with label Georgia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Georgia. Show all posts
Monday, August 18, 2008
Friday, August 15, 2008
Strobe Talbott, now a voice of reason
Strobe Talbott, was a correspondent for Time Magazine during the 1980’s. He was an apologist for the Soviet regime and is considered by some to have been a willing dupe of Soviet intelligence, or even worse. In the May 21, 1984 issue of Time he wrote this:
“The Reagan Administration has made a bad situation worse in two ways: first, by convincing the Soviet leaders that the U.S. no longer accepts military parity as the basis for relations with Moscow; second, by challenging the legitimacy of the Soviet regime, calling the U.S.S.R. an ‘evil empire’ doomed to fail.”
He missed the mark about the “evil empire” as subsequent events would prove. It failed when Boris Yeltsin, standing atop a tank in front of the Russian White House (Parliament building) put down a military coup intended to perpetuate the old order. Now in a stunning reversal, Strobe Talbott thoroughly dissects Russia’s reasoning for invading Georgia in today’s Washington Post. The Russians are trying to equate it to NATO’s intervention in Serbia and the establishment of a separate state of Kosovo.
“Russia has been justifying its rampage through Georgia as a ‘peacekeeping’ operation to end the Tbilisi government's "genocide" and "ethnic cleansing" of South Ossetia. That terminology deliberately echoes U.S. and NATO language during their 1999 bombing campaign against Serbia, which resulted in the independence of Kosovo.”
He goes on. “
This analogy turns reality, and history, upside down. Only after exhausting every attempt at diplomacy did NATO go to war over Kosovo. It did so because the formerly "autonomous" province of Serbia was under the heel of Belgrade and the Milosevic regime was running amok there, killing ethnic Albanians and throwing them out of their homes. By contrast, South Ossetia -- even though it is on Georgian territory -- has long been a Russian protectorate, beyond the reach of Saakashvili's government.”
And finally.
“Yet it now appears that beyond the undisguised animosity that Putin bears toward Saakashvili, he and his government regard Georgia's pro-Western bent and its aspiration to join two Western institutions, NATO and the European Union, as, literally, a casus belli. If that is the case, the next U.S. administration -- the fourth to deal with post-Soviet Russia -- will have to reexamine the underlying basis for the whole idea of partnership with that country and its continuing integration into a rule-based international community.”
Read it all.
“The Reagan Administration has made a bad situation worse in two ways: first, by convincing the Soviet leaders that the U.S. no longer accepts military parity as the basis for relations with Moscow; second, by challenging the legitimacy of the Soviet regime, calling the U.S.S.R. an ‘evil empire’ doomed to fail.”
He missed the mark about the “evil empire” as subsequent events would prove. It failed when Boris Yeltsin, standing atop a tank in front of the Russian White House (Parliament building) put down a military coup intended to perpetuate the old order. Now in a stunning reversal, Strobe Talbott thoroughly dissects Russia’s reasoning for invading Georgia in today’s Washington Post. The Russians are trying to equate it to NATO’s intervention in Serbia and the establishment of a separate state of Kosovo.
“Russia has been justifying its rampage through Georgia as a ‘peacekeeping’ operation to end the Tbilisi government's "genocide" and "ethnic cleansing" of South Ossetia. That terminology deliberately echoes U.S. and NATO language during their 1999 bombing campaign against Serbia, which resulted in the independence of Kosovo.”
He goes on. “
This analogy turns reality, and history, upside down. Only after exhausting every attempt at diplomacy did NATO go to war over Kosovo. It did so because the formerly "autonomous" province of Serbia was under the heel of Belgrade and the Milosevic regime was running amok there, killing ethnic Albanians and throwing them out of their homes. By contrast, South Ossetia -- even though it is on Georgian territory -- has long been a Russian protectorate, beyond the reach of Saakashvili's government.”
And finally.
“Yet it now appears that beyond the undisguised animosity that Putin bears toward Saakashvili, he and his government regard Georgia's pro-Western bent and its aspiration to join two Western institutions, NATO and the European Union, as, literally, a casus belli. If that is the case, the next U.S. administration -- the fourth to deal with post-Soviet Russia -- will have to reexamine the underlying basis for the whole idea of partnership with that country and its continuing integration into a rule-based international community.”
Read it all.
Monday, August 11, 2008
Russia's ultimate weapon
President Bush has castigated the Russians for their invasion of Georgia. It is now obvious that Russia, despite assurances to the West, wants total control over the entire country, not just the disputed territory of South Ossetia. This fits with predictions Putin would continue his efforts to rebuild the Russian empire to include the republics lost with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Already the southern tier, the “stans,” (Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have been brought into the fold through Russia’s gas pipeline monopoly and political intrigue.
The two remaining thorns in Putin’s side are the former Soviet republics Georgia and Ukraine. The Russians rigged elections in both countries but failed when popular uprisings invalidated them and resulted in pro-Western democracies. The Ukrainian election was particularly nasty with the unsuccessful poisoning of now President Viktor Yushchenko with dioxin. As we have seen, the current Russian regime will stop at nothing to eliminate its political enemies and critics.
Despite Bush’s protestations, there isn’t a lot we can do to change the outcome. Geographically Georgia is remote, on the eastern end of the Black Sea. Aircraft carriers are banned entry by the Montreaux Convention, not that we would want to conduct naval operations there. There just isn’t enough sea room. The only contiguous friendly country is Turkey and the distance from Istanbul to Tbilisi is over 800 miles.
But the most serious problem is our European allies. Never known for their backbone when it comes to facing down enemies, their overwhelming reliance on Russian natural gas has added to their timidity. Fifty years of American protection has allowed continental military forces to atrophy and grow soft. Even the British have lost their zeal for combat. In Iraq, they cut deals with al Sadr’s militias, abandoned their base in Basra and retreated to the exurban safety of the airport. The highly criticized Iraqi Army cleaned house in a few days, a job the Brits wouldn’t and couldn’t handle.
How bad is Europe’s reliance on Russian gas? Enough that people will freeze if they play tough. Here’s how dependant they are (2005 figures): Germany 30-39% France 20-25% Poland 62% Italy 25-28% Bulgaria 97% Czech Republic 79%
The thought of chilly winters no doubt colored Germany’s Angela Merkel’s decision last week to veto NATO membership for Georgia. And it sent a signal of weakness to the Russians. Unless Europe can diversify their gas suppliers, they will forever be beholden to the Russians. Who would ever have thought Russia’s economic might would be more potent then their 50,000 tanks during the cold war in their quest to subdue Europe?
The two remaining thorns in Putin’s side are the former Soviet republics Georgia and Ukraine. The Russians rigged elections in both countries but failed when popular uprisings invalidated them and resulted in pro-Western democracies. The Ukrainian election was particularly nasty with the unsuccessful poisoning of now President Viktor Yushchenko with dioxin. As we have seen, the current Russian regime will stop at nothing to eliminate its political enemies and critics.
Despite Bush’s protestations, there isn’t a lot we can do to change the outcome. Geographically Georgia is remote, on the eastern end of the Black Sea. Aircraft carriers are banned entry by the Montreaux Convention, not that we would want to conduct naval operations there. There just isn’t enough sea room. The only contiguous friendly country is Turkey and the distance from Istanbul to Tbilisi is over 800 miles.
But the most serious problem is our European allies. Never known for their backbone when it comes to facing down enemies, their overwhelming reliance on Russian natural gas has added to their timidity. Fifty years of American protection has allowed continental military forces to atrophy and grow soft. Even the British have lost their zeal for combat. In Iraq, they cut deals with al Sadr’s militias, abandoned their base in Basra and retreated to the exurban safety of the airport. The highly criticized Iraqi Army cleaned house in a few days, a job the Brits wouldn’t and couldn’t handle.
How bad is Europe’s reliance on Russian gas? Enough that people will freeze if they play tough. Here’s how dependant they are (2005 figures): Germany 30-39% France 20-25% Poland 62% Italy 25-28% Bulgaria 97% Czech Republic 79%
The thought of chilly winters no doubt colored Germany’s Angela Merkel’s decision last week to veto NATO membership for Georgia. And it sent a signal of weakness to the Russians. Unless Europe can diversify their gas suppliers, they will forever be beholden to the Russians. Who would ever have thought Russia’s economic might would be more potent then their 50,000 tanks during the cold war in their quest to subdue Europe?
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