Another “Serious Warning” for North Korea

During the early 1960s the People’s Republic of China (mainland China in those days) would issue an incessant number of sternly worded diplomatic complaints, called “Serious Warnings.” They were delivered on their domestic radio broadcasts. They were generally issued for some perceived territorial incursion, usually a US Navy ship entering Hong Kong or a flyby of the disputed Paracel or Spratly islands in the South China Sea. They numbered in the hundreds. They usually read like this: At 0800 on 29 June a US Navy ship intruded into the territorial waters of the People’s Republic of China south of (you name it). This is a clear violation of international law. For this the People’s Republic of China issues Serious Warning number 283. Often there would be two or three a day. No one in the US Government took the Serious Warnings seriously. They were toothless complaints issued for domestic consumption. The recent flap over North Korea’s missile launch shows the same impotence by us as the Chinese exhibited in the 1960s. Calling an emergency UN Security Council meeting with the knowledge that any substantive action will be vetoed by Russia or China accomplishes nothing. Best to keep silent.

N. Korea missile test to come within 500 nautical miles of Pearl Harbor

Between April 4 and 8, the North Koreans intend to launch their longest range missile, the Taepodong 2 (TD-2) on a test into the Central Pacific. It is ostensibly a satellite shot, but is in reality a nearly full range test of the missile. The satellite ruse is being used to get around UN resolutions and the 2002 Pyongyang Declaration in which Kim Jong Il promised the Japanese not to test long range missiles in exchange for humanitarian aid. Based on the two danger zones published by the International Civil Aircraft Organization (ICAO) from information provided by North Korea, the projected flight path of the third stage will take it about 460 nautical miles (approx 850 km) south of Pearl Harbor. And the data from the launch will be shared between these two remaining Axis of Evil nations; Iran and North Korea. The test will also be a signal to Asian nations as far away as Taiwan, Thailand and the northern Philippines that they are within missile range of a new nuclear power with an unpredictable, irrational leader. Not a pleasant thought. Commercial satellite imagery from March 29 shows the missile fully assembled on the launch pad. The flight path will take the missile over northern Honshu, Japan’s main island. It will pass near the US operated TPY-2, X band tracking and target prediction radar at the Shariki sub base. The first stage will splash down just short of the Japanese mainland (Danger area 1) and the second about 2,100 nm downrange in Danger Area 2. A previous attempt to launch the TD-2 in 2006 ended in failure.